Top GOP-Pollster Admits ‘MAGA Has Shrunk’ in Midterms Warning
Even MAGA personalities can see the writing on the wall with Republicans’ midterm chances.
A prominent pollster with close ties to the “MAGA” movement issues a warning: President Donald Trump’s electoral base is shrinking—a trend with potentially catastrophic repercussions for the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections.
It is widely anticipated that Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives by this coming November; furthermore, some polls suggest that the Senate, too, could fall within the Democrats’ reach.
Moreover, Rich Baris—of “Big Data Polls” and a pollster sympathetic to Trump—warns that the “MAGA” base, upon which Trump relies, has begun to fracture.
“We are facing the issue of purchasing power,” states Andrew Kolvet, host of The Charlie Kirk Show. “There are economic factors that absolutely must be taken into account: for what occupies the minds of most people, above all else, is how much money they have left in their wallets at the end of the month.”
The host then asked: “Is there any good news to be expected regarding the midterms?”
“Well,” Baris replied with a laugh, “you asked me to stay optimistic. But what exactly is there to be optimistic about? Look, I simply am not optimistic.”
He issued a stern warning: “For nearly a full year now, I have been constantly shouting—raising my voice—to explain how to save and turn around this situation ahead of the 2026 elections. From a historical standpoint, there remains—at best—only a one-in-five chance (18%) that Republicans will manage to turn the tide in their favor.”
Kolvet then brought up an opinion poll conducted in February, which placed Democrats ahead of Republicans by a 7-point margin in a hypothetical matchup for the 2026 legislative elections. Kolvet noted that this gap had recently narrowed; however, Baris was quick to refute this claim, citing results observed in his own polling data.
“We are also seeing that the gap has started to widen again somewhat,” Baris stated, adding that Republicans must now “work tirelessly to mobilize the electorate,” given the absence of Trump’s name on the ballot in this election.
Republicans have long benefited from high turnout among a demographic group that typically does not engage in political participation unless Trump’s name appears on the ballot.
Kolvet then asked, in a sarcastic tone: “So, Harry Enten—your favorite expert—recently ran a segment on CNN in which he claimed, in essence, that 90% of the Republican Party base favors a war against Iran. What are you seeing on that front?”
“Look—as you know—it is, first of all, laughable that someone like Harry Enten has suddenly become a cited authority regarding the ‘MAGA’ base, or regarding the polls he chooses to cherry-pick to serve his own agenda,” Baris complained, before going on to boast: “We have probably been polling the ‘MAGA’ base—asking people whether or not they identify as such—longer than anyone else.”
Nevertheless, Paris continues to maintain that the “MAGA” base has shrunk since Trump’s victory in the 2024 election—a victory in which Trump secured a majority of the popular vote with a lead of approximately 1.5% over former Vice President Kamala Harris, and also won key swing states with an average margin of 3.5%.
“The truth is that the ‘MAGA’ base has shrunk. So, you know, I could go into the details of the precise figures, but we were trying to stay positive today, weren’t we?” said Paris.
“You know, a process of ‘purge by exclusion’ is currently at work—a process that I feel it is important for people to grasp. And the people being excluded are precisely those who were described as… well, all those segments that constituted the ‘winning elements.’ Right?” continued Paris. “I am referring to young voters—more specifically, young Black men and Hispanics. Right?”
Paris then noted that Trump has, in fact, lost some of his support among young women over the past few weeks.
“This demographic group has shown the most marked decline in terms of satisfaction ratings in our polls,” stated Paris. “Part of this decline is attributable to the ‘Epstein’ affair, and another part to the war; they simply do not like this war.”
