Trump’s Job Approval Is Down, But Not Due to the Epstein Files

The furor over Donald Trump’s handling of the Epstein files and potential future revelations about the 47th president’s relationship with the late sex offender shows no signs of abating, more than a week after Trump attempted to dismiss the case as a “Democratic hoax.” Scattered polls taken during the sudden surge in interest in the case indicate widespread public disapproval, including among Republicans.

However, the impact on Trump’s popularity is uncertain. His net approval rating has fallen significantly since its peak of -3.5% on June 7 (according to the Silver Bulletin averages), and currently stands at -9.5%. Part of this decline occurred after the Epstein files made headlines on July 7, when the Justice Department and FBI announced there was no basis for an investigation. But the significance of the Epstein files is debatable, as the Silver Bulletin points out:

Why has Trump’s popularity plummeted so sharply in the past two weeks? One possible explanation lies in the Epstein files. Americans (even Republicans) are unhappy with Trump’s handling of them. But the problem isn’t necessarily crucial. Another, more mundane possibility is that Americans simply don’t like Trump’s policies.

For a decade, Americans have held strong and divided opinions about Donald Trump, and his popularity is lower than ever. Could this controversy, perhaps because it particularly affects his “MAGA” base, fundamentally change perceptions of him? This assumption makes a lot of sense, given the many times Trump has said or done things that are widely considered to have ruined his political career, dating back at least to his mockery of prisoner-of-war John McCain’s heroism during a July 2015 campaign appearance.

The only way to truly measure the impact of the Epstein scandal is its impact on Trump’s presidential approval ratings, and it’s difficult to disentangle discontent over this issue from other factors. But if it’s truly damaging Trump’s relationship with his base, it should be reflected in his approval ratings among Republicans. Unfortunately, some of the most recent polls (such as those from the Wall Street Journal, Emerson College, and the Trafalgar Foundation/Insider Advantage) were not accompanied by party-specific data tables. However, this latest poll, conducted by two prominent Republican supporters, claimed that “Trump’s approval rating is rising again,” indicating that Republicans were more concerned about Tulsi Gabbard’s infidelity allegations against Barack Obama than the Epstein files.

Similarly, a Daily Mail/JL Partners poll conducted on July 23 found widespread disapproval (27% in favor, 42% disapproving) of Trump’s handling of the Epstein files, but without affecting his overall approval rating.

“This news may have felt terrible to Trump in recent days, but it hasn’t affected his approval rating,” James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, told the Daily Mail.

Johnson added, “In fact, we believe his approval rating has risen from 48% to 49%, which would be his best approval rating since May. His approval rating among the base is also holding steady, at 91% among Republicans.” »

A slightly older Fox News poll (July 21) showed that 60% of Republicans and 56% of MGAA supporters believe the Trump administration has not been fully “open and transparent” regarding the Epstein case. However, Trump’s approval rating stands at 88% among Republicans and 96% among MGAA supporters. Regarding the importance of the Epstein cases, Fox’s conclusions are unequivocal:

For those who disapprove of Trump’s performance, the main reasons are “the economy/tariffs” (14%), “his bad temper” (13%), “his failure to uphold the Constitution” (10%), “family separation”/immigration (8%), “preference for the wealthy” (7%), dissatisfaction with his overall performance (7%), and “excessive budget cuts” (6%). Only 1% of respondents, all Democrats and independents, cited “the Jeffrey Epstein case.”

These results are confirmed by another YouGov/Economist poll conducted on July 21, which includes partisan data. This poll found that only 45% of Republicans gave Trump a favorable rating for his handling of the Epstein investigation (compared to 25% who disapprove), but Trump’s overall approval rating among Republicans remains at 87%.

These figures are likely to change as media coverage of the Epstein affair intensifies. Of course, if clear evidence (and not just hints) of Trump’s personal involvement in Epstein’s predatory behavior emerged, everything could change, but that has been the case from the beginning. At this stage, there is no evidence that the Epstein affair is damaging Trump’s reputation, much less that it is causing any alienation from his “Make America Great Again” activist base.