New poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Biden in seven key states and has a wider margin in most states when he also faces independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Trump (77) has the largest margins against Biden (81) in North Carolina (47-42%), Arizona (48-44%) and Georgia (47-44%), according to the poll. 'Emerson College published. Tuesday.
The 45th president leads 45-44% of the vote in Michigan and Nevada and 47-45% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The percentage of undecideds in all state polls is 8 to 11 percent, meaning every party candidate has the potential to win by a wide margin of voters before November.
With the addition of third-party candidates, the president suffers more than Trump. RFK Jr. garners more votes than Biden in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, opening up Trump's margin against Biden.
In Arizona, Kennedy comes in at 9%, and with the addition of Cornel West and Jill Stein of the Green Party (they get 2% together), Biden ends up with 40% to Trump's 44%. Kennedy's approval rating is at 6% in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, leaving Biden languishing at 37-46%, 41-45% and 40-45% respectively, with West and Stein in single digits .
Kennedy also gets 8% in Nevada, and the "other" third-party candidates get 3%, bringing the race to 37-42% for Biden. In Georgia and Michigan, RFK Jr. had 5% and the “other” top 5 candidates had 2%, bringing the race to 39-45% and 42-43% for Biden.
But the Democrat-turned-independent must still appear on the electoral rolls in all 50 states. So far, for the states Emerson studied, the Kennedy campaign says it has enough signatures to get on the ballot in Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada.
The poll has a 3% credibility interval and was conducted April 25-29 via mobile phones and landlines, with an online panel provided by CINT. The sample size for each state was 1,000 registered voters.
“The presidential election situation in battleground states has remained relatively stable since Emerson and The Hill began tracking them last November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson College Bowling Foundation. “The share of undecided voters fell and Biden made gains in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump maintained a slight lead over Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. »
The poll showed that the Republican victory in the presidential race does not carry over to the Senate elections.
In Arizona, 45% of voters surveyed support Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, with 43% supporting Republican Carrie Lake and 12% saying they are undecided. LLC has increased its margin by 4% since February, while Gallego has declined by 1%.
In Pennsylvania's Senate race, 46% of voters prefer current Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, 42% support Republican Dave McCormick and 12% are undecided, according to the poll.
Democrats are also leading Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina. In the Badger State, 46% of voters said they would support Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, while 43% supported Republican Eric Hovde and 11% were undecided.
In Michigan, 42% said they would vote for Democrat Elissa Slotkin, 40% for Republican Mike Rogers and 19% were undecided.
In a hypothetical match in North Carolina, the current Democratic candidate, Jacky Rosen, leads by 45% to 37% against Republican Sam Brown, while 18% have not yet decided. As Rosen faces Republican Jeff Gunter, Rosen comes in at 47-33%, with 21% undecided.