Traders Are Betting on Ethereum — But Not Too High, Not Too Soon
Traders are returning to Ethereum options with split expectations on price targets, even as volatility stays low.
Summary
- Amberdata data indicates only a 12% probability that ETH will exceed $5,000 by December 2025.
- Individual traders are targeting $3,000, while institutions are targeting $3,500 by June.
- Open interest in ETH options has returned to its December highs despite low volatility.
Ethereum options markets fared worse, even though they surpassed even the most conservative targets before the end of the year. Volatility remained stable despite increased demand from traders.
These factors reflect uncertainty about Ethereum’s trajectory, even as the cryptocurrency market matures and attracts sophisticated capital.
This data was published by Amberdata, a digital asset and market analytics platform. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives, told Decrypt that investor appetite for options was returning.
“In the options market, we’re finally seeing a return to options, but volatility remains low,” he said, noting that current bets on Ethereum remain mixed.
Options contracts are financial agreements that allow investors to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price if they choose. In the case of cryptocurrencies, these contracts offer the ability to buy or sell at agreed prices, but without obligation.
These derivatives allow traders to establish investment positions with specific risk parameters: buyers can only lose the premium paid, while sellers receive it upfront.
Maggadini’s predictions come as Ethereum has lagged Bitcoin this year, with investors turning to the alpha cryptocurrency, particularly with the Bitcoin conference opening this week in Las Vegas.
QCP Capital noted in a note Tuesday that the conference, compared to its previous edition in July, could provide a “useful model.”
“At that time, a speech by President Trump coincided with a sharp rise in daily implied volatility above 90,” the Singapore-based digital asset trading firm wrote.
What followed was a rapid reversal and a nearly 30% drop in Bitcoin’s price in two days—a historic move in the cryptocurrency world that “remains etched in the market’s memory.”
However, this cautious pricing reflects a divergence between individual and institutional expectations, with the risk appetites of different groups remaining divergent.
He stated: “On-screen traders (retail) are expecting a price of $3,000 by the end of the month, while institutions are expecting a price of $3,500 by the end of June.”
However, despite cautious price targets, the market appears much more positive, indicating that traders are taking active investment positions, even though the price outlook remains weak.
Maggadini added: “Open interest in Ethereum is also back,” with levels now returning to “December highs, when the market was very bullish.”
Meanwhile, the price of Ethereum rose nearly 4% last week, reaching approximately $2,647 at the time of writing, according to data from CoinGecko.
Furthermore, open interest in Ethereum derivatives is approximately $35 billion, an increase of 8.8%, according to data from CoinGlass. Ethereum’s open interest-weighted funding rate remains positive.
